Predictions?

Chugger
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Chugger
Edited Date/Time 3/6/2020 8:25am
When does old sparky take over?

I'm calling 2020/21 S̶t̶a̶m̶p̶ ̶I̶t̶!̶ Arc It!
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Falcon
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Falcon 11/1/2016 1:48pm
11/1/2016 1:48pm
Doug Henry raced a prototype thumper in 1997. The 4-stroke revolution was complete in 2004, I'd say. That's when everybody had begun selling 250Fs, thus "completing" their lineups.

If you consider Alta's competitive entries in 2016 roughly equivalent to Henry's YZM400, then I predict an electric takeover sometime in the neighborhood of 7 years, or 2024. In reality, I bet it will take a little longer for electrics to take over. Somehow, I feel like Americans will be reluctant to give up their gasoline.
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Dropbear
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Dropbear 11/2/2016 2:24pm
11/2/2016 2:24pm Edited Date/Time 11/2/2016 2:29pm


Seperate class for 20 years then take over. Btw Electric motorcycle circa 1930 is cool
johnnypotato123 11/4/2016 1:58pm
11/4/2016 1:58pm
I don't think comparing this to the switch to four strokes is really a good comparison, the switch from a combustion engine to electric is completely different. I think it will take a lot longer due to the price point for one and second the fact that they don't even have one to compete against the "top" combustion engines; 450's.

Not to mention that I'm guessing none of the top manufacturers (besides KTM) have much developed in the world of electric motocross bikes, I'm sure they've all explored it and Honda having a large share of the car market surely they have an edge in battery powered machines but I doubt any of them have it developed anywhere near to Alta. It will be interesting, I don't predict our sport will be taken over by these electric companies because sponsors aren't really just lining up to be apart of it, but who knows in quite a few years our sport could be drastically different.
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Andy_Greenney 11/7/2016 1:59pm
11/7/2016 1:59pm Edited Date/Time 11/7/2016 1:59pm
I wonder what manufacturers will be onl the ball with development and hit the ground running. Its quite a change from developing internal combustion engines to motors and batteries, or will be see standardised electrical components with manufacturers developing the frame etc

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kzizok
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kzizok 11/7/2016 2:34pm
11/7/2016 2:34pm
Im really curious to know where the big four are on this electric movement. My guess is, if one or all are still in the thinking stage, then I cant help to think they are starting out behind the 8 ball.
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Andy_Greenney 11/8/2016 4:52am
11/8/2016 4:52am
kzizok wrote:
Im really curious to know where the big four are on this electric movement. My guess is, if one or all are still in the thinking...
Im really curious to know where the big four are on this electric movement. My guess is, if one or all are still in the thinking stage, then I cant help to think they are starting out behind the 8 ball.
Honda should be ahead of the others, with their robotics and automobile divisions.
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es337
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es337 11/8/2016 11:45am
11/8/2016 11:45am
commercially available battery energy density has to increase to about 360wh/kg from where it is now (185wh/kg) before it will be even with ice bikes
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Falcon
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Falcon 11/18/2016 4:32pm
11/18/2016 4:32pm
kzizok wrote:
Im really curious to know where the big four are on this electric movement. My guess is, if one or all are still in the thinking...
Im really curious to know where the big four are on this electric movement. My guess is, if one or all are still in the thinking stage, then I cant help to think they are starting out behind the 8 ball.
Andy_Greenney wrote:
Honda should be ahead of the others, with their robotics and automobile divisions.
I bet the manufacturers are further along with this than you guys think. Hint, hint.
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kzizok 12/9/2016 10:32pm
12/9/2016 10:32pm Edited Date/Time 12/9/2016 10:32pm
kzizok wrote:
Im really curious to know where the big four are on this electric movement. My guess is, if one or all are still in the thinking...
Im really curious to know where the big four are on this electric movement. My guess is, if one or all are still in the thinking stage, then I cant help to think they are starting out behind the 8 ball.
Andy_Greenney wrote:
Honda should be ahead of the others, with their robotics and automobile divisions.
Falcon wrote:
I bet the manufacturers are further along with this than you guys think. Hint, hint.
Besides KTM?
Krazyk2774
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Krazyk2774 12/15/2016 8:52am
12/15/2016 8:52am
es337 wrote:
commercially available battery energy density has to increase to about 360wh/kg from where it is now (185wh/kg) before it will be even with ice bikes
I agree, battery technology is really the only thing holding electric bikes back. Once they figure out how to pack the same amount of energy into the battery as what's in a tank of gas, electric bikes will become the norm.
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DFWracefan
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DFWracefan 1/2/2017 9:10am
1/2/2017 9:10am
Will we see a SX demo this year? Would love for about 5-6 hit the track with A riders to see how it goes! I think it is coming sooner than later.
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Bearuno
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Bearuno 1/13/2017 11:28pm
1/13/2017 11:28pm
Don't you blokes follow the TT?

Honda, bring along a bike tricker than their Moto GP bikes to the 1 lap E Race. But, it is called a Mugen........... Whistling

Michael Czysz's E1PC and further versions that he and his team made, were outrageously trick things. Won at the IOM from 2009 to 2013 (I think), and won other E Bike races. He died last year, at the age of 51, from that nasty bastard, Cancer. R.I.P.
kzizok
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kzizok 1/16/2017 5:15pm
1/16/2017 5:15pm
Bearuno wrote:
Don't you blokes follow the TT? Honda, bring along a bike tricker than their Moto GP bikes to the 1 lap E Race. But, it [i]is...
Don't you blokes follow the TT?

Honda, bring along a bike tricker than their Moto GP bikes to the 1 lap E Race. But, it is called a Mugen........... Whistling

Michael Czysz's E1PC and further versions that he and his team made, were outrageously trick things. Won at the IOM from 2009 to 2013 (I think), and won other E Bike races. He died last year, at the age of 51, from that nasty bastard, Cancer. R.I.P.
I havent seen anything TT related in as long as I can remember.
Bearuno
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Bearuno 1/17/2017 9:52pm
1/17/2017 9:52pm
It's on every year, kzizok ! And there's always plenty of coverage.

Last year, McGuiness got beaten because he'd got back so far over the tailpiece / been bounced around by the road that much, that his bum had hit the Big Red Emergency Shutoff Button the bikes have to have in the tailpiece. He was tinkering with the dead bike for a few minutes, when a spectator said maybe he should try re-setting the Big Red Button.......
mark911
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mark911 1/28/2018 10:15am
1/28/2018 10:15am
es337 wrote:
commercially available battery energy density has to increase to about 360wh/kg from where it is now (185wh/kg) before it will be even with ice bikes
Energy Density is just one side of a multisided coin. How about the same ED but with the ability to charge in less time than it takes to fill a tank? Or discharge at 200C without heating or other detrimental affects? Neither increases range but makes the existing limited range more manageable. New Graphene loaded Li-Ion battery technology is pretty close to production level maturity. I suspect you'll see major improvements in battery charge and discharge characteristics before you'll see major ED improvements.
Bradj70
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Bradj70 2/11/2018 2:08pm
2/11/2018 2:08pm
agree its gonna come down to battery technology improving to longer lasting lighter weight.

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Dropbear
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Aren’t Australian Eucalyptus trees considered a pest in So California? I notice they are everywhere.
Tarz483
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Tarz483 1/13/2020 10:56am
1/13/2020 10:56am
Falcon wrote:
Doug Henry raced a prototype thumper in 1997. The 4-stroke revolution was complete in 2004, I'd say. That's when everybody had begun selling 250Fs, thus "completing"...
Doug Henry raced a prototype thumper in 1997. The 4-stroke revolution was complete in 2004, I'd say. That's when everybody had begun selling 250Fs, thus "completing" their lineups.

If you consider Alta's competitive entries in 2016 roughly equivalent to Henry's YZM400, then I predict an electric takeover sometime in the neighborhood of 7 years, or 2024. In reality, I bet it will take a little longer for electrics to take over. Somehow, I feel like Americans will be reluctant to give up their gasoline.
Is your prediction still the same since, Alta folded ?
Tarz483
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Tarz483 1/13/2020 10:57am
1/13/2020 10:57am
Dropbear wrote:
[img]https://p.vitalmx.com/photos/forums/2016/11/02/158605/s1200_IMG_3190.jpg[/img] Seperate class for 20 years then take over. Btw Electric motorcycle circa 1930 is cool


Seperate class for 20 years then take over. Btw Electric motorcycle circa 1930 is cool
I hope your right I think keeping them separate is the best idea.
AceMcCrank
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AceMcCrank 3/4/2020 3:39pm
3/4/2020 3:39pm
All electric bikes. That'll be so exciting. 15,000 fans at a Motocross event and all you'll be able to hear is people talking to each other out in the stands and the whir or gears going around in gear boxes down on the track. WHEW!! Can't wait.

Hey maybe they could incorporate loud speakers into the bikes and allocate some of the battery juice for fake 2 stroke bike sounds and make it awesome sauce. Mmmmmmmm. Those will be the days aye?

I got a question for the electric bike fans though. Which do you think is more preferable? Recharging the electric bike batteries from electricity generated by coal-fired power plants that produce clouds of sulphur dioxide in the atmosphere, or recharging the electric bike batteries from electricity generated by nuclear power plants that produce radioactive waste that doesn't decay for approximately 100,000 years? Which do you think is best?
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CG118
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CG118 3/6/2020 8:22am
3/6/2020 8:22am
Definitely nuclear.
CG118
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CG118 3/6/2020 8:24am
3/6/2020 8:24am
Really, you should have known.
AceMcCrank
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AceMcCrank 3/7/2020 11:07pm
3/7/2020 11:07pm
CG118 wrote:
Definitely nuclear.
That would be my choice as well. The nuclear option. Let some future maroons deal with it. Cause I'll be busy saving the world from the evils of 2 stroke smoke.
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KennyT 3/11/2020 3:42pm
3/11/2020 3:42pm
I really have nothing against electric bikes other than for professional racing. Won’t it seem odd to see 40 bikes racing into the first turn in silence? I don’t know if I’ll stick around once that happens. Great for backyard racing....horrible for real racing
Falcon
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Falcon 5/18/2020 1:18pm
5/18/2020 1:18pm
Falcon wrote:
Doug Henry raced a prototype thumper in 1997. The 4-stroke revolution was complete in 2004, I'd say. That's when everybody had begun selling 250Fs, thus "completing"...
Doug Henry raced a prototype thumper in 1997. The 4-stroke revolution was complete in 2004, I'd say. That's when everybody had begun selling 250Fs, thus "completing" their lineups.

If you consider Alta's competitive entries in 2016 roughly equivalent to Henry's YZM400, then I predict an electric takeover sometime in the neighborhood of 7 years, or 2024. In reality, I bet it will take a little longer for electrics to take over. Somehow, I feel like Americans will be reluctant to give up their gasoline.
Tarz483 wrote:
Is your prediction still the same since, Alta folded ?
Nope, a lot has changed now. I was hoping that Alta would be the vanguard of a whole new wave of e-bikes from the big guys. It looks now like there may still be some more "downtime."

I'm still waiting to see an electric 85cc equivalent. I think that will be the signal that manufacturers are trying to groom riders into electric riders.

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