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Here is who he won't beat, unless the stars align.
Tomac
Musquin
Anderson
Barcia
Roczen
Fair enough.
Let's look at who is in the second tier who he can race with on a good night. Keep in mind Osbourne and Plessinger are rookies too and so is Hill for the most part. Look at how well Hill did in a few races.
Brayton
Wilson
Webb
Plessinger
Osborne
Hill
Here is probably his peer group.
Peick
Bogle
Baggett
Seely
I think he will consistently be ahead of:
Reed (always a wild card)
Friese
Bloss
Nicoletti
If he can stay injury free he can definitely get a top 10 overall in points. He's a decent starter. He may sneak into the top 5 on a good night.
I don't know how he will end up. But based on the potential upside and available riders he has earned a spot as a second rider.
Look at how awesome Davalos did when he rode the 450 outdoors.
Sometimes you just never know.....
He's earned it. Let's see what he can do with it now. It's just hatin from you to say you want Reed, Friese, Bloss, Nicoletti ahead of Joey on your team.
You would be fired as a Team Manager immediately.
The Shop
Something to think about is that likely one from the 6-15 group is going to possibly replace one from the 1-5 group. So who will it be and who gets replaced this coming season??? Injuries play a big part in all this.....
I'm betting that he is the surprise of 2019. He's built for that KX450 and he's Eli's teammate. I bet he is top rookie at the end of the SX season, and I bet he finishes ahead of Webb.
Weird track, weird timing after MXdN and off-season, weird format, weird effort levels from the entrants...
He could do great for sure, as he rides super smooth, but he has also just washed the front end a lot. Be interesting to see how the year plays out, he's got massive pressure to keep it up.
My thoughts are he rode amazing. Much better than I expected.
Plessinger was out. Osborne was out. Roczen was out. Musquin had some weird stuff happen to him. Brayton was out. Seely was out. Wilson was out. Peick was out.
It was a weird format race with no whoops in which the races were only 10 laps. On average, 6 less than he’s used to and 13 less than he will be running this season. Plus, let’s not forget, he’s doing 17 rounds.
If you’d like to go ahead and crown him as a top rider after Saturday then by all means go do it. I will stick with my prediction of a 15thish place guy who goes to the LCQ a few times this year. Which is amazing for most people in the world. Just not for a rider with a top tier factory ride.
If I’m wrong then I will admit it during the season. Maybe he rides the 450 a lot better. We will see. Webb had his number though and we see how he’s doing. So did Osborne and Plessinger and they’re moving up this year too.
Pit Row
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