Posts
2279
Joined
10/20/2012
Location
San Diego, CA
US
Fantasy
2360th
Edited Date/Time
8/26/2017 10:53am
In a nutshell Tomac needs to take 1st or 2nd place (with a Musquin or Bagget win) to clinch the title in Moto 1. 3rd won't do it with a Musquin or Baggett win.
The points going into the final round:
439 Tomac
411 Baggett (-28)
409 Musquin (-30)
Eli must finish no more than 3 points behind Baggett and 4 points behind Musquin to clinch the title in moto 1.
A second place behind a Baggett win or a second place behind a Musquin win will clinch the title a moto early.
A 3rd place will not clinch the title in several scenarios.
This is the math:
If Baggett wins with Eli in 2nd, Eli will have 25 more points than Baggett. If Baggett then wins the 2nd moto and Eli has a mechanical or scores 0 points in moto 2, Tomac and Baggett would be tied in points with the tie being broken in Tomac's favor by his 4 overall wins to Baggett's 3 (including Budd's Creek). Eli becomes the 2017 MX champion.
If Baggett wins with Tomac in 3rd, and Musquin in 2nd, Tomac will enter moto 2 with a 23 point lead over Baggett which is not enough to clinch the title. Tomac would need to score 2 additional points in moto 2 to beat Baggett and win the title.
A finish in this order eliminates Musquin who would be down 32 points going into moto 2.
If Musquin wins moto 1, and Tomac takes 3rd, Tomac will go into moto 2 25 points ahead of Musquin. Since they both have 4 overalls, a Musquin win in moto 2 with Eli scoring 0 points would give Musquin the championship with the tie broken in Musquin's favor with 5 overall victories to Tomac's 4. A second place finish or better for Tomac in Moto 1 to a Musquin win clinches the championship for Tomac. A third place finish leaves the door open.
So with a Musquin or Baggett win in Moto 1, Tomac must take 2nd to clinch the title a moto early.
If Herlings wins and shifts everyone back a place, Tomac needs to lose no more than 3 points to Baggett and no more than 4 points to Musquin to clinch the title in moto 1.
Looking forward to the race tomorrow!
The points going into the final round:
439 Tomac
411 Baggett (-28)
409 Musquin (-30)
Eli must finish no more than 3 points behind Baggett and 4 points behind Musquin to clinch the title in moto 1.
A second place behind a Baggett win or a second place behind a Musquin win will clinch the title a moto early.
A 3rd place will not clinch the title in several scenarios.
This is the math:
If Baggett wins with Eli in 2nd, Eli will have 25 more points than Baggett. If Baggett then wins the 2nd moto and Eli has a mechanical or scores 0 points in moto 2, Tomac and Baggett would be tied in points with the tie being broken in Tomac's favor by his 4 overall wins to Baggett's 3 (including Budd's Creek). Eli becomes the 2017 MX champion.
If Baggett wins with Tomac in 3rd, and Musquin in 2nd, Tomac will enter moto 2 with a 23 point lead over Baggett which is not enough to clinch the title. Tomac would need to score 2 additional points in moto 2 to beat Baggett and win the title.
A finish in this order eliminates Musquin who would be down 32 points going into moto 2.
If Musquin wins moto 1, and Tomac takes 3rd, Tomac will go into moto 2 25 points ahead of Musquin. Since they both have 4 overalls, a Musquin win in moto 2 with Eli scoring 0 points would give Musquin the championship with the tie broken in Musquin's favor with 5 overall victories to Tomac's 4. A second place finish or better for Tomac in Moto 1 to a Musquin win clinches the championship for Tomac. A third place finish leaves the door open.
So with a Musquin or Baggett win in Moto 1, Tomac must take 2nd to clinch the title a moto early.
If Herlings wins and shifts everyone back a place, Tomac needs to lose no more than 3 points to Baggett and no more than 4 points to Musquin to clinch the title in moto 1.
Looking forward to the race tomorrow!
@ op budds creek was already last week, guess you know that
The Shop
In a nutshell Tomac needs to take 1st or 2nd place (with a Musquin or Bagget win) to clinch the title in Moto 1. 3rd won't do it with a Musquin or Baggett win.
It would be a whole lot easier to do that without Herlings here. Makes you think.....
If Herlings wins, and Baggett takes 2nd, Tomac needs 3rd to clinch the title. If Tomac takes 4th, Baggett will be down 24 points going into moto 2. In this case Tomac will need to score 1 point in moto 2 to overcome a 2nd moto Baggett win (Tied in points, Tomac has more wins). Musquin would be eliminated. He needs to gain 5 points in Moto 1 to keep his chances alive.
If Herlings wins moto 2, Tomac wins period, even with a DNF in moto 2.
If Herlings wins moto 1, and Musquin takes 2nd, Tomac can take 4th in moto 1 and he's the champ. Musquin will go into the second moto 26 points behind. If Baggett takes 3rd in this case, he'll be tied with Musquin and 26 points behind Tomac. Musquin and Baggett will fight for second spot in the championship in moto 2, winner take all.
Damn I can't wait for the race tomorrow!
Can we get JG33 back to take these guys out?
Jeffery shouldn't be the biggest concern for Eli.. Like I said previously, he needs to just finish the races and not get drawn into and difficult situations, it's up to himself.
Pit Row
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