Posts
4425
Joined
12/5/2011
Location
Philadelphia, PA
US
Edited Date/Time
1/10/2020 12:10pm
ROSTERS
Factory Ducati (#1) - Dovi
Factory Ducati (#2) - Petrux
Pramac Ducati (#3) - Jack
Pramac Ducati (satellite) - Pecco
Avintia Ducati (customer) - Rabat (pay ride)
Avintia Ducati (customer) - Karel (pay ride)
Factory HRC (#1) - MM93
Factory HRC (#2) - JLo
LCR Honda (#3) - Cal
LCR Honda (customer) - Naka
Factory Yamaha (#1) - Rossi
Factory Yamaha (#2) - Mav
SIC Yamaha (satellite) - Morbidelli ... (upgraded status, has 2019 M1 w/ current updates)
SIC Yamaha (customer) - Fabio ... (upgraded to satellite status, has 2019 M1 w/o current updates)
Factory KTM (#1) - Zarco
Factory KTM (#2) - Pol
Tech3 KTM (#3) - Olivera
Tech3 KTM (#4) - Fish
Factory Suzuki (#1) - Rins
Factory Suzuki (#2) - Mir
Gresini Aprilia (#1) - Iannone
Gresini Aprilia (#2) - Aleix
16 Factory Bikes (*17 factory bikes with Morbidelli's upgrade)
2 Satellite Bikes (*3 satellite bikes with Quatro's upgrade)
5 Customer Bikes (*only 4 customer bikes on the grid)
TEST RIDERS / WILD CARDS
Factory Ducati - Pirro (wildcard racer)
Factory HRC - Bradl (wildcard racer)
Factory Yamaha - Folger & Nakasuga (no wildcards)
Factory KTM - Mika & Dani (no wildcards)
Factory Suzuki - Guiontolli (wildcard racer)
Factory Aprilia - Bradley Smith (will get 5 wildcard rides)
Factory Ducati (#1) - Dovi
Factory Ducati (#2) - Petrux
Pramac Ducati (#3) - Jack
Pramac Ducati (satellite) - Pecco
Avintia Ducati (customer) - Rabat (pay ride)
Avintia Ducati (customer) - Karel (pay ride)
Factory HRC (#1) - MM93
Factory HRC (#2) - JLo
LCR Honda (#3) - Cal
LCR Honda (customer) - Naka
Factory Yamaha (#1) - Rossi
Factory Yamaha (#2) - Mav
SIC Yamaha (satellite) - Morbidelli ... (upgraded status, has 2019 M1 w/ current updates)
SIC Yamaha (customer) - Fabio ... (upgraded to satellite status, has 2019 M1 w/o current updates)
Factory KTM (#1) - Zarco
Factory KTM (#2) - Pol
Tech3 KTM (#3) - Olivera
Tech3 KTM (#4) - Fish
Factory Suzuki (#1) - Rins
Factory Suzuki (#2) - Mir
Gresini Aprilia (#1) - Iannone
Gresini Aprilia (#2) - Aleix
16 Factory Bikes (*17 factory bikes with Morbidelli's upgrade)
2 Satellite Bikes (*3 satellite bikes with Quatro's upgrade)
5 Customer Bikes (*only 4 customer bikes on the grid)
TEST RIDERS / WILD CARDS
Factory Ducati - Pirro (wildcard racer)
Factory HRC - Bradl (wildcard racer)
Factory Yamaha - Folger & Nakasuga (no wildcards)
Factory KTM - Mika & Dani (no wildcards)
Factory Suzuki - Guiontolli (wildcard racer)
Factory Aprilia - Bradley Smith (will get 5 wildcard rides)
Marc (although recovering from injury) looking fast already
Ducati riders love the new bike
Yamaha Im still not sold on
Suzuki looking VERY strong
KTM has a ways to go (no surprise)
Aprilia appears to have made good progress in the offseason (but so has everyone else)
Championship Contenders...
Honda - The physical & mental health of both riders. Both coming off surgery. Both will be at each other's throats by mid season. It's their title to lose and I think they blow it. I've never been a fan of having two #1 riders on a team be it F1, MX, or MotoGP. Too much conflict.
Ducati - The bike is better than ever, and now so is the team structure. Petrucci is there to be strictly a #2 to assist Dovi. This is how you win titles, as a team. I think it's much harder to find a good #2 in this sport than a #1. I expect Dovi to win the title and if he doesnt, Ducati will be looking to move on to either Jack or Pecco.
Mid Field...
Pramac - Jack versus Pecco is going to be the battle to watch all year. Both are talented and the Ducati executives believe in them, hell, they could be the factory team at some point in the near future if Dovi or Danilo cannot deliver. Jack will be handling the heavy testing load for the factory team the way Danilo used too. This should level the playing field for Pecco to really put up a fight.
Yamaha - Yep, this is where Yamaha belongs, until they prove they dont. Im not sold that they have fixed their problems, which I believe stem from their lack of development from not having a true satellite team in the past. This year they are putting a heavy testing load on Folger. Which means the bike Morbidelli has is to help him get results rather than assist in development & race weekend setup for the factory team. You cant compete against what HRC & Ducati are doing with this strategy anymore.
Suzuki - Still without a satellite team, I just dont see them being able to keep up down the stretch. They will fall behind the development curve. But now is their chance to clearly surpass Yamaha. And if they can prove they have a good enough bike, there are 2 grid spots open for a potential satellite team to come in.
Backmarkers...
KTM - It's the same story for both KTM & Aprilia really. They both signed "A" level riders (Zarco & Iannone) to push the limits of the bike. They both have very solid #2's with the Espargaro brothers. They both signed top notch test riders. The difference is that KTM has twice the budget and twice the number of bikes on grid. Adding Tech3 and giving them factory spec bikes will really speed up the development curve. The question is can they catch Suzuki & Yamaha? Zarco isnt happy with the bike at the moment but Im going to take a gamble and say by the second half of the season, this bike will be a lot better.
Aprilia - This team has made changes at every level. They brought in a true team manager so that Romano can focus strictly on development. They brought in Bradley Smith to handle the test mule work and act as the unofficial #3 rider on some race weekends. And apparently Aleix & Iannone are getting what they asked for in the changes to the bike because Aleix (who doesnt hold back) is VERY happy with the 2019 RS-GP. Can Aprilia join the midfield and/or regularly beat the satellite bikes of Honda & Ducati? On paper, I dont see why not.
The Shop
Vinales is happy.
Rossi is less optimistic. Albeit, you can never tell with him. If it's bad, he will wait until mid season to throw everyone under the bus and if it's really good, he tends to play it coy.
I believe that it's the development structure that has been what's made Ducati so successful as of late. They use all their satellite & customer bikes as test mules on the weekends. Something all the other factories refused to do. Eventually HRC acquiesced and the bike improved. Yamaha has been reluctant to do so and lost Tech3 as a result.
I wont be a believer in Yamaha again until they deliver or change their philosophy.
It's a bit hard watching him knowing that it's gotta be on a good day where he can exercise his advantages but then watch them just get pulled out of every corner... and now the Dukes seem closer and closer to being a great handling bike too.
Bit of a purple patch for motogp.
https://www.superbikeplanet.com/maverick-tops-second-day-irta-test-at-s…
Ducati is a very small company that is able to punch up in weight due to strong sponsor ties covering their budget. So for them, these tests are always a important PR stunt. They waste time going for fast laps (winning practice) when they should be working on long term development goals. But it's a necessary evil in that each test they dominate goes a long way towards keeping sponsors happy.
HRC & Yamaha on the other hand work strictly on development, sacrificing lap times for testing purposes. They arent so dependent on offseason PR to keep the ship afloat. So we're never going to know their true pace until the season starts.
My general takeaway from the Sepang tests are these thoughts...
- Dovi is saying the Ducati is still flawed... although it's probably the best bike on the grid
- Marc is Marc & HRC is HRC, they'll be ready to win races by Qatar... he's the favorite to win the championship until he's not
- Rossi has stated the Yamaha has made progress but is still lacking... not a good sign
- Rins thinks he can win some races on the Suzuki... prove it
- Zarco says the KTM has a ways to go... he's completely changed their development path, probably for the better but it will take time to get results
- Aleix is saying the Aprilia is back to handling but still needs more power... what's new
JLo is going to miss the 2nd test and likely wont be 100% by the opening race.
Make of it what you will.
This go around tho, he wont get the benefit of being able to blame the team and having the (mostly British) media quick to jump to his defense. The Brits love trashing Italians. HRC on the other hand? I highly doubt the media goes after Puig the way they did the Ducati management.
Im still bitter that the gas tank excuse was allowed to be gospel. You still see media on social media referring to "Ducati giving up on JLo" when in fact it was Lorenzo shopping himself to Suzuki and then Yamaha from the start of the year. He wanted out. And only immediately AFTER a contract was signed with HRC did his results drastically improve. That tells me he couldnt handle the pressure of riding for Ducati. That's the variable that changed. Not the fucking gas tank.
Puig seems to love this sort of drama tho. Just look at how he's trashed Pedrosa post-retirement. I fully expect Puig to stoke the Marc vs JLo rivalry rather than do what he can to mitigate it. Between Puig and lame ass Lin Jarvis, Gigi at Ducati really needs to make the most of this opportunity.
https://www.gpone.com/it/2019/02/11/moto2/mv-agusta-quando-il-codone-es…
Pit Row
It was clear at the beginning of 2018 Jorge had the pace but fell off drastically as the laps wore on. In hindsight it sure looks like something was pumping him up or fatiguing him in some other ways. Once he got the parts he asked for he checked out at Mugello in typical Lorenzo fashion. i believe Ducati even said as much.
I am no Lorenzo fan but I want to see someone bring it to MM93. I think he has the best chance to do it. Hell im just hoping for fireworks in that HRC garage.
Yamaha doesn’t have the package.
Ducati riders are not championship contenders.
Cheers
Both variables changed during the same weekend. Only one of those variables accounts for about 90% of racing.
And since acing is 90% mental, let's go with the obvious culprit here.
You're going to have a hard time trying to convince me that the gas tank was a bigger factor than his mental state.
Not to mention, Lorenzo apologists LOVE acting like Ducati wasnt doing everything they could to accommodate him. British media act as if Ducati simply refused to make adjustments to the bike to suit Lorenzo. Not the case at all. Here are some FACTS:
- Ducati desperately wanted Lorenzo to succeed, when a mfg gets their sponsor to fork over that sort of money, it is critical that EVERYTHING is done to see that rider's salary justified. The concept that Ducati was in some way sabotaging Lorenzo benefits nobody involved. They wanted nothing more than to see him succeed AND sign another contract. It was in everyone's best interest, especially upper management.
- Ducati was making CONSTANT changes to the bike on Lorenzo's request. This notion that he'd been asking for the gas tank and they just withheld the part out of stubborness is fabricated.
- Lorenzo started shopping himself to other manufacturers and even after doing so, Ducati was still willing to re-sign him. The door was never shut by Ducati until Lorenzo shut it by signing with HRC.
Italian brands put a certain style of pressure on their riders that isnt for everyone. It's not even a slight on Lorenzo to say he couldnt handle the pressure of Ducati. It's a similar situation at Aprilia, Ferrari, etc. It takes a certain disposition to thrive in that environment. Not only that, but Lorenzo hated the fact that he wasnt the clear #1 in the garage. He let that get into his head even though he was being paid to be the #1 and upper management wanted him to be the #1.
I don’t agree about the pressure though. Whether you like him or not dude can ride and has brought it to the very best. Lorenzo is a championship rider. fighting Valentino, Casey and MM for years. I think the pressure was on Ducati more than the other way around. It’s possible Italian pride may have hindered progress in some areas identified.
Just calling it as I see it. I am no ducati hater and I actually would like to see Petrucci emerge as a dark horse and rough up Marc.
Whether you realise it or not, the term "Italian pride" shows bias you might not even be aware of. As someone who has worked for an Italian manufacturer, I can tell you that while the Italians may have their quirks (as do the Japanese), I've never personally seen them let pride get in the way of winning. That is some weird notion that the media built up during the Stoner/Ducati era. And further re-enforced during the Rossi debacle.
In hindsight, let's be honest, Stoner is super mercurial and socially isnt the easiest to deal with. Maybe the most talented EVER but he wasnt without his faults. Shutting down and refusing to communicate is EXACTLY how NOT to get along well with your Italian employers. He was busy fighting with upper management over his girlfriend (now wife). That had way more to do with his last few years at Ducati (as a racer) than the carbon chassis etc.
And the Ducati that Rossi rode for? Not the same group today. Gigi is easily the best team manager in MotoGP (and maybe all of motorsport right now). And he likes Lorenzo personally. If pride was a factor, it was Ducati wanting desperately to prove that signing Lorenzo was the right move.
But what I can tell you about Ducati that will never change is the fact that they're still a small manufacturer punching way above their weight when competing against HRC. Let me put it this way, when you visit a small manufacturer like that, you realize that your results on the race course have a much more magnified effect on the brand, hell, you feel it even walking around town, you as the racer have a indirect impact on the local economy that brand is based out of. You feel like everyone is depending on you. That can have a heavy weight to it. It's just a different intensity from the technicians all the way up the ranks, they all feel that pressure and they're all looking at the racer to deliver. It's not less pressure than riding for factory Kawasaki or HRC. But it's different. And it's not for everyone. It clearly wasnt for Lorenzo.
In fact Casey was asking (whining mostly) for changes and parts for years while Ducati shoved the carbon swingarm and frame down his throat. This resulted in a bike that was either hit or cold depending on what track it was ran on. had issues with the tires and lacked feel. They were the only team on the Grid perusing this Avenue of development, which went on for years despite the feedback of their riders.
And for the record my wife is 100% Italian and she is stubborn as hell
Again, racing is 90% mental. Youre gonna have a hard time telling me it was the bike when Casey was going thru severe marital problems at home.
Nobody in their right mind would change the bike for a guy they know aint right mentally. That’s because no bike change is going to fix what personal issues he was struggling with.
Do we still blame Suzuki, knowing what we know now about all of McGrath’s cocaine use during that period? Have any of you ever heard the story as to how much money Factory Suzuki spent on worx transmissions for MC because he kept blowing them up. Only to later to find out the mchanic he’d brought with him from Honda was assembling things wrong. Suzuki did everything right!
Im not so much defending Ducati as Im looking at all the facts (albeit, I may have more info than the avg fan regarding certain situations). Go down the list of guys who have blamed Ducati...
Melandri - nice guy, talented, hindsight has proven he’s a basketcase
Casey - nobel to a fault, talented, mercurial & had personal issues at home
Rossi - didnt like the culture at HRC, didnt like it at Ducati either, brings Burgess & crew over who thought they had it all figured out, Vale wanted to quit as soon as it started, and later FIRES Burgess whom he forced onto Ducati
Lorenzo - fought with every teammate he’s had and he will quickly realize that HRC is not Yamaha culturally
Then you have Bayliss, Capirossi, Hayden, Dovi, Petrux... all talented, all better suited for the Ducati atmosphere.
Riders are a mixed bag. And there’s always way more to the story than just what the media likes to put out there. That’s why the Ducati/Stoner relationship is such a great example. Fans got that situation completely backwards.
If Marc ever goes to Ducati, it’s over, he’ll look more dominant than Casey was. He was built for that atmosphere, loves pressure, zero distractions, 100% focused.
Rossi not looking good
Mav got pole
It’ll be interesting how this shakes out
The Petronas bikes got upgraded (Morbidelli got a full factory bike & Quatro got a satellite 2019)
Zarco looks very frustrated, the KTM is 2 seconds off the pace
Suzuki not nearly as dominant as they’ve been in preseason BUT at least both riders made it to Q2 so that’s pretty impressive
Honda has lost a lot of test time and it shows. Naka on the 2018 RCV damn near out qualified the factory bikes
Ducati is as advertised
Aprilia looks decent under Aleix. Not sure what is holding back Iannone & Smith.
Dovi does it again. Is he ready for a full 19 races? The thing about MM93 is that he’s looking for a real fight. Dovi has to prove he has the mental endurance to last all season going up against Marc.
Big credit to Marc. He almost dumped it several times on those last few laps. Still recovering from injury, no fucks given. The 2019 Honda is clearly a great bike. A few more races of development and its going to be every bit as good as the Ducati.
Never write Rossi off. Looks like Yamaha is the same ‘ol mess. Vinales looks great in testing & qualifying. Meanwhile Rossi warns there’s still a ways to go. And sure enough come race day, Vinales gets smoked & Rossi uses sheet racecraft to salvage a result. The Yamaha it seens is the 4th best bike on the grid.
The Suzukis came to play. The riders, both being Spanish, look more willing to get aggressive with Marc than anyone else. But they do lack in the experience department. The bike looks like it’s there. They shouldn’t have a issue getting a satellite team next year.
Aprilia & KTM both had great showings. But will be overshadowed. Iannone literally rode the wheels off his bike, crashing on the cool down lap.
Bummer for Jack Miller. He had the pace to win today. Bummer for Quatro as well, in a great rookie class, he came out of nowhere. Missed a great opport today having to start from pit lane. Could he have won? What does it say about the Yamaha M1?
-Vinales, what a head case.
-Dovi, I agree let’s see if he can do it against MM all season long. I like the flag, the stopping on the victory lap. Maybe he is getting some swagger? One aspect of his game he has been missing. He made a hard move across the front of MM on the last lap that showed he meant business.
- Rossi, hell of a ride. His experience paid off today.
-MM, what can you say, guy rides on the ragged edge every time he throws his leg over a bike. He threw everything at Dovi and damned near went down a number of times. While I’m not a fan he is absolutely amazing to watch ride.
-Petrux, dude did not look happy after the race. Probably has some serious questions to ask himself.
-Jorge, man lets keep it rubber side down for your own damned health. He looked terrible before the race and I’m sure he was sore from that high side. He delivered what I was expecting.
-Honda, better bring a shitload of spares those riders are throwing bikes and parts down the track like hot cakes.
-Ducati, has a rocket ship, bike looks sorted. Let’s hope for no more bogey tracks this year.
-Yamaha, what the hell have they been doing the last 3 years? They need a development breakthrough somewhere somehow.
-Suzuki, riders are exciting, nice to see them mixing it up.
Again hell of a race.
Im no fan of the aero stuff, but it’s clearly not ruined the racing and Ducati shouldnt be getting penalized for being innovative.
The only problem is that HRC might have built their best RCV since the 2015 bike. If you consider the fact that they've missed out on testing all offseason due to all their factory riders being injured. I think we've only see a fraction of the RCV's potential. It's clearly the fastest it's been (compared to Ducati) in what seems like over a decade.
Ducati & Honda are in a horsepower war. Yamaha & Suzuki both seem way behind in this department. And once Aprilia & KTM figure out their chassis, it's gonna be a four way battle in the midfield department.
As for JLo? I think he couldve been a podium threat but his crashes really shook his confidence. Really dumb strategy on his part. He shouldve eased his way in. Things were coming to easy and it bit him. I'd imagine it's going to have lasting effects on his season. And being that he's probably out of the title chase once he finally starts battling for wins, it'll make the dynamic between he & Marc all that more volatile. As we know, JLo is not a team player.
I still think Yamaha is suffering from a lack of development power. Now that they finally have 4 current spec bikes on the grid, they can play catchup. But they better figure out who is leading development. Is it going to be Rossi or Maverick? They need to pick one and commit to it.
Im not sure why Danilo Petrucci was so upset. I mean, it's nice to see the competitive fire burning so strongly, but he rode a great race considering he was on soft tires front & rear. He's right in the thick of the championship hunt. As of right now, the contenders have to be:
Dovi - Ducati
Marc - Honda
Rins - Suzuki
Petrux - Ducati
Rossi - Yamaha (I just cant ever count him out)
That's the group you want to be in. The second tier have the ability and speed but I doubt we'll see it over an entire season:
Cal
Miller
Mir
JLo
Maverick
And guys like Morbidelli, Quatro, Aleix on the pesky Aprilia that seems to really get better as the race goes on, Zarco will improve as should Iannone, Taka is on form.... anything in the top 10 has never been a bigger accomplishment.
Im a bit disappointed in Pecco tho. He was so hot during testing. Very surprised at his lack of pace all weekend.
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