Unpredictable | A Medley of Contenders 6

The 2024 season of Monster Energy Supercross is only six rounds in and is shaping up to be one of the most compelling in history. Coming into the season, there were already stories to be interested in, including two new OEMs entering the series with Triumph and Beta. Then there were the storylines of the defending champion, Chase Sexton, changing teams, Cooper Webb returning to Star Yamaha, the Lawrence brothers in their rookie 450 season, and Eli Tomac returning from his Achilles injury that cost him the title in 2023. So, there was plenty to look forward to leading up to Anaheim 1. In my opinion, however important those stories are, they are not what makes this season so entertaining. The mixed results within the top ten are. I don't think anyone could have predicted the results we've seen so far.

Every year, the 'experts' and fans bench race about who will win and how many winners we will see. When we examine the list of riders it's easy to answer with your heart and predict six to eight riders could win races. It seems obvious riders like Eli Tomac, Chase Sexton, and Cooper Webb will get wins because they win multiple races each year. Then guys like Ken Roczen, Justin Barcia, and Jason Anderson usually get a win. Of course, the rookie, Jett Lawrence was expected to win some races and even predicted to win the championship by some. While bench racing pre-season, we can see Malcolm Stewart, Adam Cianciarulo, and Aaron Plessinger getting their first 450 Supercross win. Looking at history, five is the magic number of winners most years. This means a lot of riders we think can or will win won't.

We've had five winners in 2024 after only six races. Sexton and Webb each have wins. Aaron Plessinger broke through and got his first win, while the rookie Jett Lawrence has won twice. Eli Tomac, second all-time in Supercross wins, has yet to win in '24. I do not believe ET3 will go winless this season. This will most certainly be the first time since 2015 that we see more than five winners. That alone is compelling.

As for the actual racing, one could argue it hasn't been the best simply because there have only been two passes for the lead in a Main Event. Jason Anderson passed Cooper Webb in race two at A2 for the lead, and AP passed Roczen when the 94 crashed in San Diego. Beyond that the leader after lap one has went on to win each race. I would counter that argument with how diverse the results have been throughout the top seven to ten positions. A rider can be on the podium one week and seventh the next. Riders are losing or making up positions in and around the top ten. Yes, the weather has played a factor at two of the rounds, but that, too, has added to the compelling news. The unpredictability has been welcomed.

We can see the points showing this has been an elevated season. In 2023, there were 35 points between first and fifth place after round six. This season, it's 11. Currently, Eli Tomac is in seventh place and 17 points down. In '23, Justin Barcia was in seventh and down by 42 points after six rounds. The gap between third and fourth in points after Glendale is only one point, while a year ago, it was 21. This shows that the top eight (points drop drastically after Dylan Ferrandis, who is in eighth) are all keeping it close, and there is no clear separation as in past years. 

After a few races the series usually has two to three riders who have elevated above the others, and it becomes a bit predictable. As of now, that is not the case this year. The top seven can all realistically win on any given night, and a mixture of riders making the podium is becoming the norm. Would a podium of Jason Anderson, Aaron Plessinger, and Justin Barcia be a shock? Maybe a little, but I'm not counting it out this season.

I’m not ready to call a win from riders such as Dylan Ferrandis or Justin Barcia just yet, but the 51 has won a race in three of the last four years, so it's not totally unrealistic to think he'll get one once he's back to one hundred percent. Ferrandis, who moved to the Phoenix Honda team, is still learning a new bike with a team that does not have the resources of the teams he's previously been on. A win for him seems unlikely but not impossible.

We're also fortunate that we haven't lost any riders outside of Adam Cianciarulo due to injury. It would be tremendous if all the riders make it through the season healthy, but the trend would say otherwise. Injuries could easily open the door to opportunities for riders to get their first win of the season and this series could stay unpredictable. Things will probably start to normalize, and two or three guys will be the clear contenders, but for now, we should enjoy the depth of the premier class.

After a weekend off, the series will return in Arlington, Texas, and I expect we'll see more of the same. Tomac will be back in form with a podium, and at least one of the riders from the Glendale podium will be outside the top five. Jett Lawrence will likely be back on the box, but I'm not ready to count on it. These are just predictions because of this season, who really knows? Thankfully, we are getting to enjoy a stellar season and have eleven more rounds of Supercross to contemplate these topics.